برنامج تدريبي في اقتصاديات المشاريع النفطية وتحليل المخاطر في لندن

نظرة عامة على البرنامج

Economic analysis links technical work on a petroleum project to the decision to invest, and to the share of value that goes to the state. Upstream projects carry large up-front costs, long lead times, geological uncertainty and volatile prices, so the way cash flows, fiscal terms and risk are modelled has a direct effect on investment decisions and public revenue.

This five-day Petroleum Project Economics & Risk Analysis Training in London takes participants from cash flow fundamentals through fiscal regime modelling to probabilistic risk analysis. Participants build an integrated field development model in Excel, test it against different fiscal terms and price paths, and use decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation to judge risk.

The programme draws on current public tools and policy. The IMF’s Fiscal Analysis of Resource Industries (FARI) approach, a discounted cash flow method used to evaluate mining and petroleum fiscal regimes, provides the framework for comparing government take and investor returns. The UK’s own regime, where the Energy Profits Levy raised the headline rate on upstream profits to 78% from November 2024, offers a live example of how fiscal changes shift project value.

Energy transition risk is treated as a core modelling input, not an afterthought. Participants test projects against lower long-term prices, carbon costs and decommissioning obligations, so that investment cases and fiscal terms hold up under a range of demand scenarios.

The programme suits ministries, regulators and national oil companies as well as company and finance teams. Government participants focus on fiscal design and revenue forecasting; commercial participants focus on valuation and portfolio decisions; both work on the same models.

يعزز البرنامج القدرات المؤسسية في

• Petroleum economics terminology and project life cycle phases
• Pre-tax and post-tax cash flow modelling
• Depreciation, loss carry-forward and ring-fencing rules
• Inflation, nominal and real cash flows
• Time value of money and discount rate selection
• NPV, IRR, payback, profitability index and breakeven price
• Royalty and tax regimes
• Production sharing contracts, cost recovery and profit oil
• Resource rent taxes and windfall levies
• Government take, effective tax rates and progressivity
• Fiscal regime modelling with the IMF FARI approach
• Expected value and decision tree analysis
• Farm-in and farm-out evaluation
• Sensitivity and scenario analysis
• Monte Carlo simulation of reserves, costs and prices
• Energy transition and stranded asset risk
• Decommissioning cost estimation and provisions
• Investment decision papers for boards and ministries

The result is a team that can build, challenge and explain an economic model, and use it to support fair terms and sound investment decisions.

The Growing Importance of Petroleum Project Economics & Risk Analysis

Fiscal terms are changing more often. The UK raised the Energy Profits Levy to 38% from 1 November 2024, removed its main investment allowance and extended it to 31 March 2030. It has since confirmed that a permanent Oil and Gas Price Mechanism, charging 35% on revenues above $90 per barrel for oil and 90p per therm for gas in 2026/27, will follow once the levy ends. Investors and governments elsewhere are watching how such changes affect activity and revenue.

Cost and decommissioning data show why careful modelling matters. The North Sea Transition Authority reported average UKCS unit operating costs of £17.81 per barrel of oil equivalent in 2025, down from £19.60 in 2024, but estimates the remaining decommissioning bill at £43.4 billion, with a record £2.6 billion spent in 2025. Late-life economics, cessation of production and abandonment liabilities now weigh heavily on valuations.

For producer governments, the IMF recommends transparent cash flow modelling and domestic modelling capacity, noting in a 2024 working paper that comparing fiscal instruments on consistent cash flow metrics helps regime design and that carbon taxes interact with extractive fiscal regimes.

تحتاج المؤسسات بشكل متزايد إلى مهنيين قادرين على:

• Building transparent cash flow models from technical and cost inputs
• Selecting and justifying discount rates and price assumptions
• Modelling royalty, tax and production sharing terms
• Calculating government take and effective tax rates
• Comparing fiscal regimes on consistent indicators
• Forecasting public revenue from petroleum projects
• Quantifying geological, cost, schedule and price uncertainty
• Using decision trees for exploration and appraisal choices
• Running Monte Carlo simulation and reading the outputs correctly
• Testing projects under transition and carbon price scenarios
• Estimating and provisioning for decommissioning
• Reviewing operator models and development plans critically
• Presenting results clearly to non-specialist decision-makers

Strong petroleum project economics systems help organisations:

• Make investment decisions that reflect risk
• Negotiate fairer and more stable fiscal terms
• Improve the accuracy of revenue forecasts and budgets
• Identify marginal projects and incentive needs early
• Avoid committing capital to assets at risk of stranding
• Plan for decommissioning liabilities
• Strengthen audit and parliamentary scrutiny of contracts
• Communicate trade-offs between state and investor returns
• Build consistent valuation practice across portfolios

Good models do not remove uncertainty, but they make assumptions visible, so that ministries, boards and lenders can see where value and risk sit.

Who Should Attend This Petroleum Project Economics Training?

صُمم هذا البرنامج من أجل:

• Officials in ministries of petroleum, energy and finance
• Upstream regulators and licensing authorities
• Revenue authority staff dealing with extractive taxation
• National oil company planners and commercial teams
• Petroleum economists and project analysts
• Reservoir, petroleum and field engineers moving into economics
• Development planning and asset managers
• Financial analysts and corporate treasury staff
• Investment, banking and project finance professionals
• Internal and external auditors of oil and gas operations
• Accountants working on upstream joint ventures
• Contract negotiators and legal advisers
• Sovereign wealth and resource fund staff
• Staff of oversight bodies and parliamentary committees
• Consultants advising on extractive sector governance

No advanced finance background is required, but participants should be comfortable with Excel. Mixed teams of engineers, economists and finance staff benefit most.

Petroleum Project Economics Training Objectives

Upon successful completion of this Petroleum Project Economics Training, participants will be able to:

• Use standard petroleum economics terms and concepts correctly
• Set up a pre-tax and post-tax cash flow for a field development
• Apply depreciation, loss carry-forward, inflation and sunk cost rules
• Calculate and interpret NPV, IRR, payback, profitability index and breakeven price
• Model royalty and tax, production sharing and resource rent regimes
• Measure government take and compare regimes using FARI-style indicators
• Apply expected value and decision tree analysis to exploration and farm-out decisions
• إجراء تحليلات الحساسية والسيناريوهات ومونت كارلو
• Include carbon costs, transition scenarios and decommissioning in valuations
• Build an integrated Excel model of a typical oil field development
• Present an economic evaluation and recommendation to decision-makers

Each objective is practised in Excel during the week, so participants leave with working models rather than formulas on slides.

محتوى البرنامج وهيكله

Petroleum Project Economics Training Methodology

The programme is hands-on. Each concept is introduced briefly, then applied immediately in a shared Excel model, so that by the end of the week every participant has built and tested a complete evaluation.

يجمع البرنامج بين:

• Short expert briefings on concepts and methods
• Guided Excel modelling exercises
• A single field model developed across all five days
• Fiscal regime comparisons using published frameworks
• Decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation practice
• Case material from the UK and other producing countries
• Group discussions on policy and investment trade-offs
• Peer review of models and assumptions
• Individual assignments with facilitator feedback
• A mock investment committee or ministry panel
• Templates and model checklists for later use

Participants are invited to complete a short training needs assessment before the programme so that examples and fiscal regimes can be matched to their roles.

الزيارات الفنية والبرنامج الميداني

Where scheduling allows, the programme can include a technical visit or expert session in London linked to the week’s themes, for example with an energy sector organisation, a professional body or a specialist adviser working on upstream economics, regulation or decommissioning. Visits are confirmed with host organisations closer to the programme dates and are subject to their availability and access rules; when a visit cannot be arranged, an extended expert-led case session replaces it.

النتائج المتوقعة

Upon completion of this Petroleum Project Economics Training, participants will be able to:

• Build and audit a petroleum project cash flow model
• Select and defend the right economic indicators for a decision
• Model and compare common fiscal regimes
• Estimate government take and revenue timing
• Use decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation in practice
• Assess farm-in and farm-out terms
• Include transition, carbon and decommissioning risk in valuations
• Present a clear, evidence-based investment recommendation

Participants return with their completed model, templates and a set of checks they can apply to models prepared by operators, consultants or colleagues.

Institutional Application of Petroleum Project Economics Training

يدعم هذا البرنامج المؤسسات في تعزيز:

• Economic evaluation of field development plans
• Fiscal regime design and review
• Licensing round and contract negotiation preparation
• Petroleum revenue forecasting
• Investment appraisal and capital allocation
• Portfolio and farm-out decisions
• Risk management and probabilistic planning
• Transition and carbon risk assessment
• Decommissioning planning and provisioning
• Model governance and review standards
• Audit and oversight of petroleum agreements

يعود المشاركون بأدوات عملية لتحسين:

• Integrated field cash flow model
• Fiscal regime comparison template
• Government take calculator
• Decision tree template
• Monte Carlo simulation workbook
• Price and carbon scenario deck
• Model review checklist
• Investment recommendation paper format

Ministries and companies seeking a wider review of their analytical functions can combine the programme with an institutional capacity assessment.

الأهمية الإقليمية والتطبيق

أوروبا

The UK Continental Shelf is a mature basin where fiscal changes, falling production and decommissioning dominate economics. The Energy Profits Levy, the planned Oil and Gas Price Mechanism and NSTA cost data provide a well-documented case for participants from other mature provinces.

أفريقيا

Several African producers and new entrants are negotiating or reviewing production sharing contracts and need to forecast revenue under uncertain prices. Cash flow modelling and FARI-style analysis help ministries test terms before signature and plan budgets realistically.

الشرق الأوسط

National oil companies and ministries in the region manage large portfolios and partnerships with international companies. Probabilistic analysis, portfolio ranking and transition scenarios support long-term investment and diversification planning.

آسيا

Producers in Central, South and Southeast Asia face declining mature fields alongside gas developments for domestic energy security. Economic evaluation of incremental projects, late-life fields and gas pricing is directly relevant.

أمريكا اللاتينية

New offshore provinces and established producers both depend on fiscal terms that attract investment while protecting public revenue. Comparing regimes on consistent indicators helps governments and investors discuss terms on a shared basis.

Participants can use their own country’s fiscal terms in the Day 3 and Day 5 exercises, so the model they take home reflects their real regime.

Host Country Profile – UK

London is one of the world’s main centres for energy finance, commodity trading, legal and advisory services, which makes it a natural setting for a programme on petroleum project economics. Its universities, professional bodies and energy companies create a deep pool of expertise.

The UK is a useful benchmark because its upstream sector is mature, transparent and heavily documented. The North Sea Transition Authority publishes data on production, costs and decommissioning, including UKCS unit operating costs of £17.81 per barrel of oil equivalent and production efficiency of 76% in 2025, and a remaining decommissioning estimate of £43.4 billion. Recent fiscal changes, from the 78% headline rate to the planned price mechanism, show how policy affects project value.

London is served by several international airports with direct flights from most capitals. Visitors from many countries need a visa or, for eligible nationalities, an Electronic Travel Authorisation before travelling; participants should check current requirements on the UK government website. Risalat provides invitation letters and visa advice on request.

Petroleum Project Economics Training Deliverables

Participants receive full support before, during and after the programme, including the modelling tools built during the week.

قبل البرنامج

• التقييم المسبق للمشاركين
• Petroleum Economics Readiness Assessment
• Petroleum Economics Resource Pack
• مواد قراءة تحضيرية
• دعم واستشارات مجانية بشأن التأشيرة
• الاستقبال من المطار والمساعدة عند الوصول
• إقامة مع الإفطار
• عشاء ترحيبي للتعارف

أثناء البرنامج

• حقيبة Risalat التدريبية (حقيبة، وقارورة، وكوب، وقميص، وقبعة، وغلاف جواز سفر، وأقلام، ودفتر، ومغناطيس وميدالية مفاتيح)
• Comprehensive Petroleum Economics Training Manual
• Integrated Field Cash Flow Model (Excel)
• Fiscal Regime Comparison Template
• Government Take Calculator
• Decision Tree Template
• Monte Carlo Simulation Workbook
• ورش عمل عملية ومحاكاة
• مناقشات جماعية وتعلم من الأقران
• غداء ومرطبات يومية
• الاستفادة الكاملة من مرافق مكان التدريب
• جهاز Mini Pad / جهاز لوحي مزود بمواد تعليمية رقمية
• زيارة ميدانية (حسب الاقتضاء)
• جولة ترفيهية في المدينة

بعد البرنامج

• شهادة الإتمام
• جائزة Risalat تقديراً للمشاركة في البرنامج
• مواد مرجعية بعد التدريب
• Model Review Checklist
• Price and Carbon Scenario Deck
• الدعم بعد التدريب وإرشادات المتابعة
• تقرير البرنامج

Ministries, regulators and companies that want this programme for their own teams, using their own fields and fiscal terms, can request a tailored in-house proposal.

Common Challenges in Petroleum Project Economics & Risk Analysis, And How This Training Helps

How can we check whether an operator’s economic model is reliable?

Day 1 and Day 5 cover model structure, consistency checks and documentation, and participants leave with a model review checklist.

How do we choose between NPV, IRR and other indicators when they disagree?

Day 2 explains what each indicator measures and when it misleads, using a ranking exercise on three development options.

How can a ministry tell whether proposed fiscal terms are fair?

Day 3 applies the FARI approach to compare government take, investor returns and revenue timing across regimes and price scenarios.

How do we forecast petroleum revenue for the budget when prices are volatile?

Day 3 and Day 4 combine fiscal modelling with price scenarios and simulation to give revenue ranges rather than single figures.

How should we decide whether to accept a farm-out offer?

Day 4 uses expected value and decision trees to value farm-out terms against drilling alone or relinquishing.

How do we include energy transition risk without guessing?

Day 5 tests projects against low-price and carbon cost scenarios and shows how to set out the assumptions transparently.

How do we account for decommissioning early enough?

Day 5 covers late-life economics and decommissioning estimates, using UK experience where the remaining bill is estimated at £43.4 billion.

الأسئلة الشائعة

Do I need a finance background to attend?

No. The programme starts from cash flow basics. Participants should be comfortable with Excel, as all exercises are built in spreadsheets.

Which fiscal regimes are covered?

Royalty and tax systems, production sharing contracts, resource rent and R-factor mechanisms, and windfall levies such as the UK Energy Profits Levy.

Is the programme suitable for government officials?

Yes. Ministry, regulator and revenue authority staff use the same models to compare fiscal terms, estimate government take and forecast revenue.

Will there be a site or technical visit?

Where scheduling allows, a technical visit or expert session is arranged; visits are confirmed with host organisations, and an extended case session is held if a visit is not possible.

Can we use our own country's terms in the exercises?

Yes. Participants can apply their own fiscal terms in the Day 3 and Day 5 exercises, and in-house versions can be built around an organisation's own fields.

جميع البرامج في لندنالمزيد من برامج النفط والغاز

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