Formation à la prévision, à la budgétisation et au processus de planification à Bichkek

Présentation du programme

Every budget starts with a forecast. Revenue estimates, spending ceilings, cash plans and investment decisions all depend on a view of the economy and of the organisation’s own activity. When forecasts are weak, budgets drift, programmes are cut mid-year and managers lose confidence in the numbers.

This five-day programme in Bishkek brings together forecasting, planning and budgeting as one connected process. It is designed for ministries, government agencies and enterprises, including state-owned companies, that want budgets which are realistic, linked to strategy and useful for managing performance during the year.

The Kyrgyz Republic offers a timely setting. In January 2026 the Cabinet of Ministers adopted Resolution No. 27, consolidating the rules on programme budgeting and budget transparency into one set covering preparation, execution, monitoring and medium-term planning. In August 2026 the Fiscal and Investment Policy Council approved the Main Directions of Fiscal Policy for 2027–2031, and a fifth national PEFA assessment is under way in 2026.

The previous PEFA assessment, finalised in 2021, scored macroeconomic and fiscal forecasting at D+ and the medium-term perspective in expenditure budgeting at C+, while noting that all republican budget spending has been presented in programmes since 2014. Its findings and the new reforms provide practical case material for participants from any country.

Participants work through the full cycle: strategic planning, forecasting methods, cost behaviour, budget preparation, variance analysis and financial strategy. Excel-based exercises run through every day, so each technique is practised, not only discussed.

Le programme renforce les capacités institutionnelles en matière de

• Linking strategy, plans, forecasts and budgets in one cycle
• Strategic analysis with PESTLE, SWOT and stakeholder mapping
• Macroeconomic assumptions for budget planning
• Revenue forecasting using trend, seasonal and regression methods
• Time-series analysis and forecast accuracy measurement
• Medium-term budget frameworks and expenditure ceilings
• Programme budgeting with outputs, outcomes and indicators
• Understanding fixed, variable, direct and indirect costs
• Cost-volume-profit analysis and break-even planning
• Activity-based costing and budgeting
• Preparing master budgets for agencies and enterprises
• Responsibility accounting and variance analysis
• Rolling forecasts and in-year budget revisions
• Cash-flow forecasting and working-capital management
• Capital investment appraisal using discounted cash flow
• Cost of capital and financing choices for enterprises
• Balanced scorecard and performance reporting
• Fiscal risk and scenario planning

Risalat facilitators work in partnership with participating institutions, drawing on their own budget documents and plans where participants choose to share them.

The Growing Importance of Forecasting, Budgeting and Planning

Fast-changing economies put pressure on forecasts. The National Statistical Committee’s preliminary estimate shows Kyrgyz GDP growth of 11.1% in 2025, well above the 6.8% the IMF had projected in its June 2025 Article IV consultation. Surprises of this size, in either direction, change revenues, spending needs and borrowing plans, which is why sound forecasting and regular budget updates matter so much.

Development partners are supporting this work. The World Bank’s Capacity Building in Public Financial Management 2 grant (P155148) helped the Ministry of Finance develop a revenue forecasting model and user guide and trained more than 700 PFM staff, while its 2022 progress report showed expenditure outturn variance still at 14%. In July 2024 ADB approved a US$50 million first subprogramme of its Sustainable Fiscal Management and Governance Improvement programme, covering tax policy and administration, climate-sensitive and gender-responsive public financial management, and state-owned enterprise governance.

Les organisations ont de plus en plus besoin de professionnels capables de :

• Building forecasts from clear, documented assumptions
• Testing forecasts against actual results and learning from errors
• Preparing medium-term budget estimates within ceilings
• Designing programmes with measurable outputs and outcomes
• Analysing cost behaviour to support pricing and service decisions
• Producing master budgets and cash plans
• Explaining variances and proposing corrective action
• Running rolling forecasts during the year
• Appraising capital investments with discounted cash flow
• Assessing fiscal and financial risks with scenarios
• Presenting budget information clearly to decision makers and the public
• Working within budget calendars and transparency requirements

Strong forecasting and budgeting systems help organisations:

• Keep spending close to approved budgets
• Reduce mid-year cuts and payment arrears
• Allocate resources to strategic priorities
• Plan investments with full life-cycle costs
• Control costs without damaging services
• Manage cash and avoid liquidity shortfalls
• Report results, not only spending
• Build credibility with ministries of finance, boards, lenders and citizens
• Respond quickly to economic shocks

The IMF’s 2025 Article IV consultation also urged containing fiscal deficits, reducing tax exemptions and improving state-owned enterprise governance. Each of these depends on reliable forecasts and disciplined budgets at ministry, agency and enterprise level.

Who Should Attend This Forecasting and Budgeting Training?

Ce programme s'adresse à :

• Budget and finance department heads in ministries
• Budget planning and fiscal policy specialists
• Revenue forecasting and tax policy analysts
• Economists in ministries of finance and economy
• Planning and strategy staff in government agencies
• Programme managers responsible for budget programmes and indicators
• Finance managers in state-owned enterprises
• Chief financial officers and financial controllers in companies
• Management accountants and cost analysts
• Treasury and cash management officers
• Investment planning and appraisal staff
• Finance staff in project implementation units
• Internal auditors reviewing budget execution
• Local government finance officers
• Financial advisers and consultants
• Project and line managers who prepare or control budgets

Participants should have a working knowledge of finance or budgeting and basic Excel skills. Mixed teams from finance, planning and operational units gain the most.

Forecasting and Budgeting Training Objectives

Upon successful completion of this Forecasting and Budgeting Training, participants will be able to:

• Explain how strategy, forecasting, planning and budgeting connect
• Apply PESTLE, SWOT and stakeholder analysis to planning
• Prepare revenue forecasts using trend, seasonal and regression methods
• Measure forecast accuracy and explain errors
• Prepare medium-term budget estimates within expenditure ceilings
• Design budget programmes with outputs, outcomes and indicators
• Analyse cost behaviour and apply cost-volume-profit analysis
• Use activity-based costing to support budgeting decisions
• Build a master budget and a cash-flow forecast in Excel
• Carry out variance analysis and rolling forecasts
• Appraise investments using NPV and the cost of capital
• Present budgets and performance results clearly

Each objective is practised through an exercise, so participants return with templates they can use straight away.

Contenu et structure du programme

Forecasting and Budgeting Training Methodology

The programme uses a participative workshop format. Short inputs are followed by Excel exercises, case studies and group discussion, so each technique is applied to realistic numbers.

Le programme associe :

• Short presentations with worked examples
• Excel exercises using prepared templates
• Case studies from PEFA findings and financed reform projects
• Group work in mixed public and enterprise teams
• Forecasting and costing simulations
• Budget negotiation role play
• Variance analysis drills with mid-year data
• Peer review of forecasts and budgets
• Discussion of participants’ own budget documents
• Daily reflection and action-planning
• A capstone presentation with panel feedback

Examples are drawn from both government and enterprise settings, so participants see how the same tools work in different institutions. Teams wishing to review their wider capability can use Risalat’s free Institutional Capacity Assessment.

Résultats attendus

Upon completion of this Forecasting and Budgeting Training, participants will be able to:

• Produce documented revenue and activity forecasts
• Prepare medium-term budget estimates within ceilings
• Design programme budgets with measurable indicators
• Apply costing methods to support decisions
• Build master budgets and cash-flow forecasts
• Analyse variances and run rolling forecasts
• Appraise investments using discounted cash flow
• Present budgets and results with confidence
• Lead improvements in their institution’s budget process

These outcomes help institutions keep budgets credible, link spending to results and respond faster to change.

Institutional Application of Forecasting and Budgeting Training

Ce programme aide les organisations à renforcer :

• Macro-fiscal and revenue forecasting
• Medium-term budget planning
• Programme budgeting and performance information
• Links between national strategies and budgets
• Cost management in agencies and enterprises
• Cash planning and treasury management
• Public investment planning and appraisal
• Budget execution control and variance reporting
• State-owned enterprise financial planning
• Budget transparency and public hearings
• Fiscal risk analysis
• Coordination entre les services financiers et opérationnels

Les participants repartent avec des outils pratiques pour améliorer :

• A forecast assumptions register
• A revenue forecasting workbook
• A forecast accuracy tracker
• A programme budget and indicator template
• An activity-based costing worksheet
• A variance analysis and rolling forecast template
• A cash-flow forecast model
• An investment appraisal (NPV) workbook

Before nominating staff, institutions can use Risalat’s free Training Needs Assessment or Governance Audit to focus the programme on their own priorities.

Pertinence régionale & mise en application

Central Asia

Central Asian finance ministries are moving towards programme budgeting and medium-term frameworks with development partner support. In the Kyrgyz Republic, ADB’s fiscal management programme, the World Bank’s PFM capacity grant and the 2026 PEFA assessment all point to forecasting, medium-term planning and performance information as priorities.

Europe

Many countries in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus use PEFA assessments and medium-term budget frameworks similar to those discussed in the programme, making peer comparison straightforward.

Moyen-Orient

Revenue volatility linked to commodities and external flows makes forecasting and scenario planning central to budgeting. The cash-flow and risk sessions apply directly.

Afrique

Programme budgeting and medium-term expenditure frameworks are widespread across African finance ministries, and PEFA is widely used to track progress. Participants can apply the indicator and costing tools to their own programme structures.

Asie

Fast-growing Asian economies face the same challenge seen in the Kyrgyz Republic in 2025: outturns that differ sharply from projections. Rolling forecasts and documented assumptions help institutions adjust quickly.

Across regions, the tools are the same: clear assumptions, honest forecast evaluation, costed programmes and disciplined in-year management.

Host Country Profile – Kyrgyzstan

Bishkek, the capital of the Kyrgyz Republic, is a green, compact city set against the Tian Shan mountains. It hosts government ministries, development partner offices and a growing business community, and offers comfortable hotels and venues for a focused week of learning.

The country is a useful benchmark for this topic. The National Development Programme to 2026 sits under the National Development Strategy 2018–2040, the budget has been presented in programmes since 2014, new programme budgeting and transparency rules were adopted in January 2026, and the Main Directions of Fiscal Policy for 2027–2031 were approved in August 2026. Participants can see how a reforming finance system links national plans, forecasts and budgets in practice.

Bishkek is served by Manas International Airport, with connections through major regional hubs. Citizens of many countries can enter visa-free for short stays, and others can apply through the official electronic visa system; rules change from time to time, so participants should check current requirements with Kyrgyz consular authorities. Risalat provides complimentary visa support and advice.

Forecasting and Budgeting Training Deliverables

Participants receive full support before, during and after the programme.

Avant le programme

• Pré-évaluation des participants
• Forecasting and Budgeting Readiness Assessment
• Forecasting and Budgeting Resource Pack
• Lectures préparatoires
• Aide et conseils gratuits pour le visa
• Accueil à l'aéroport & assistance à l'arrivée
• Hébergement avec petit-déjeuner
• Dîner de bienvenue et de réseautage

Pendant le programme

• Kit de formation Risalat (sac, gourde, mug, t-shirt, casquette, protège-passeport, stylos, carnet, magnet & porte-clés)
• Comprehensive Forecasting and Budgeting Training Manual
• Forecast Assumptions Register
• Revenue Forecasting Workbook (Excel)
• Modèle de budget-programme et d'indicateurs
• Activity-Based Costing Worksheet
• Variance Analysis and Rolling Forecast Template
• Cash-Flow Forecast and NPV Workbook
• Ateliers pratiques & simulations
• Discussions de groupe & apprentissage entre pairs
• Déjeuner et pauses-café quotidiens
• Accès complet aux installations du lieu de formation
• Mini tablette avec supports pédagogiques numériques
• Visite de terrain (le cas échéant)
• Visite récréative de la ville

Après le programme

• Certificat de participation
• Distinction Risalat de participation au programme
• Documents de référence après la formation
• Budget Process Improvement Action Plan
• Forecast Accuracy Tracker
• Accompagnement après la formation & conseils de suivi
• Rapport du programme

Ministries, agencies and enterprises can also request a tailored proposal for an in-house version built around their own budget cycle, programmes and data.

Common Challenges in Forecasting, Budgeting and Planning, And How This Training Helps

How can we make revenue forecasts more reliable?

Day Two covers trend, seasonal and regression methods, documented assumptions and accuracy tracking, using real revenue outturn data from the Kyrgyz PEFA assessment.

How do we stop actual spending drifting far from the approved budget?

Day Four covers responsibility accounting, variance analysis and rolling forecasts so budget holders spot and correct deviations early.

How can programme budgets show results, not only outputs?

Day Four builds programme structures with outcome indicators and costed activities, addressing the gap PEFA found between output targets and outcomes.

How do we bring capital investment into medium-term plans?

Days Four and Five integrate investment into the medium-term framework and apply NPV and life-cycle costing to investment proposals.

How can enterprises understand which services or products cover their costs?

Day Three applies cost-volume-profit analysis and activity-based costing to real service and product lines.

How do we manage cash when revenues arrive unevenly?

Day Five builds a cash-flow forecast model and covers working-capital management and financing choices.

How can we link national strategies to annual budgets?

Day One maps the planning and budget cycle from strategy to approved budget, and the capstone on Day Five tests that link in an integrated plan.

Questions fréquentes

Is the programme for government or for companies?

Both. It is designed for ministries, agencies and enterprises, including state-owned companies. Exercises use public and enterprise examples, and mixed teams are welcome.

Will we use Excel?

Yes. Every day includes Excel exercises with templates for revenue forecasts, programme budgets, costing, variance analysis, cash flow and NPV, which participants keep.

Does the programme cover Kyrgyz budget reforms?

Yes, as case material: the 2026 programme budgeting and transparency rules, the 2021 PEFA findings, the Main Directions of Fiscal Policy for 2027–2031 and development partner support. The methods apply to any country.

What level of experience is needed?

A working knowledge of finance or budgeting and basic Excel skills. The programme suits specialists and managers who prepare, review or approve budgets.

Peut-il être dispensé en intra ?

Yes. Risalat can tailor an in-house version around your own budget cycle, programmes and data. Use the request proposal form on the Risalat website.

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